As the countdown crawls from weeks to days, football’s Prince John collects his exorbitant taxes from the poor residents Sherwood in the form of Sky subscription fees, and the nation braces itself for another thirty eight weekends in the company of Mark Lawrenson, it’s time to get some early opinions in black and white.
Just a quick rundown of the preseason title contenders, what they’ve been up to during the offseason and how I think they’ll fare when things finally get underway on the 13th. Ordered according to how they finished last season, I’m counting on things at the top remaining unchallenged and Tottenham being replaced by Liverpool in the chase for Champions League football. A full discussion of Spurs and their precarious position will hopefully follow at a later date but at the moment suffice it to say that I think Liverpool will usurp them because they have strengthened significantly, whereas Tottenham have not. I will also bum Paul Scholes to a considerable extent.
Here we go then…
Starting with the Champ19ns. Despite it being a record-breaking season, even the most die-hard United fans accept that the squad strengthening in certain significant areas. The retirement of Edwin Van der Saar prompted the summer’s first when-not-if-he goes saga as De Gea swapped Madrid for Manchester. Preseason spectators however have seen as much Anders Lindegaard and those who believe a keeper’s most valuable asset by far is experience will not be buoyed by the fact the old head keeping an eye on the prodigious talents is Tomasz Kuszczak, who last season looked incapable of converting the manager’s continued faith into quality. (If only he could get as many points at fantasy football as he would in autobiographical Scrabble). The jury is still out on whether either of the two young goalies will be able to handle the amount and regularity of pressure that comes with the no. 1 jersey.
Away from home last season, Man U continually shipped the kind of late goals they are more accustomed to scoring, and the retirement of Gary Neville and sale of John O’Shea and Wes Brown leave reliable and experienced-shaped holes in defence, and at right-back especially. The signing of Phil Jones has been widely welcomed as the perfect bolster to the increasingly crocked Rio Ferdinand and increasingly unreliable Jonny Evans, as well as stiff competition for the impressive Chris Smalling. But of the eight defenders on United’s books, only one of them plays right-back naturally, Raphael, who is young, relatively inexperienced, hot-headed and injury prone.
When you have your Silvas, Maloudas and Bales (not to mention Messis or Sanchezes) operating down your right flank, having a young Brazilian fullback as your only option seems tactically constricting to say the least. Unless one of the three young centre-halves – Smalling, Jones or Evans – can and is willing to adapt and play there permanently, the only plan B would seem to be sacrificing Valencia’s pace and quality of delivery and relying on his work rate, as happened at Stamford Bridge in the Champions League. However, United were away from home then and winning; it’s hard to see how this could be employed against the quality mention above from kick-off, or if they were losing.
The most obvious hole however, is the one that every United and most football fans were resigned to: Paul Scholes’ retirement. There are few other professionals in recent memory who have garnered such acclaim from the most esteemed of peers (Zidane and Xavi being the two who immediately come to mind) and it would be crass to suggest there is anyone who could replace the Ginger Ninja like for like. Wesley Sneijder is being touted as the immediate replacement and while his talents are indisputable and I would love to see him at the club, he is not Paul Scholes’ replacement.
Finding someone who can pass like Scholes is not easy – no one can switch the ball from one side of Old Trafford to the other like him – but there are plenty of players out there who can pass well and would be able to provide a similar level, if different kind, of creativity, Sneijder being one of the best options. And there are midfielders who can score into the double figures as Scholes used to, and again the Dutchman is among the best.
Sneijder however, plays best just behind the strikers in the no. 10, playmaker, AMF… role, playing killer passes or driving into the box. Scholes operated just in front of the defence, picking the ball up in his own half and either spraying succulent long balls or playing short passing triangles up the middle of the pitch. The latter couldn’t tackle but was a master in breaking up the play, whereas the former simply won’t tackle, preferring instead to loiter on the halfway line, looking to pick up a pinpoint long ball out of defence from a more deep-lying player. As for their respective temperaments: which one do you think has had a hair transplant and takes his holidays jet skiing in San Tropez?
If you want to replace Scholes you have to accept that his passing style in inimitable and instead look for someone with similar positional preferences, the same work ethic and a smidgen of the influence and example he set to the other players at the club. The most obvious replacement for me would Scott Parker.
Sneijder would undoubtedly galvanise United at the start of the season, but it would interesting to see if/how his ego would fit in and/or be accommodated as he accumulated games. If he banged them in like Ronaldo used to he might get away with things for a while, but given that his favourite position is also Wayne Rooney’s, it is hard to see imagine a completely seamless assimilation into the team.
Prem: 1st Cups: FA Cup Winners Europe: Semis
Chelsea then. Abramovich’s managerial policy brings to mind the comparison between women and condoms: both spend more time in your wallet than they do on the old chap. Subsequently, decisions at Stamford Bridge are made as you would expect of those with power and money– the assumption is made that cost and quality are in direct relation, and candidates are picked according to how successfully they can tart themselves up. The problem is he never quite gets the satisfaction he feels he deserves, and the managers are usually caressed lovingly at first before being cast unceremoniously aside in favour of a shinier model.
Villas-Boas did very well to marshal an incredibly talented but potentially volatile side at Porto, and the spirit they showed in overturning deficits during the knockout stages of the Europa League demonstrates a team spirit and belief that is not the work of an amateur. However, the only thing that makes him a more suitable candidate for the job than Ancelotti in my eyes is his youth.
Much as it pains me to agree with Alan Hansen on anything, I take his point that if Sir Alex Ferguson had been in charge of Chelsea, City or Arsenal last season, they would have come substantially closer to winning the league than they did. Managerial experience can be substituted to an extent by an intimate knowledge of the squad (like Guardiola’s) or an acute understanding of the league, but being an ‘avid student of the game’ is not an adequate replacement. I’m never really sure what exactly what pundits and peers mean when they describe someone as this: does it mean they play a lot of Football Manager? Read all of the opinion columns, broadsheets and tabloids? Spend their Sunday mornings watching U16s? Studying management and being a manager are no more similar than playing Risk and being Ghengis Khan.
And his youth can only really be considered a positive from Chelsea’s point of view if he has been employed as a genuinely long-term prospect. The vast majority of the squad have worked with Mourinho, so having a charismatic young manager drilling them will not be a novelty. If anything possible comparisons could be both the team and manager’s downfall. This is not a young group of players who need guidance and motivation; this a bunch professionals whose career legacies’ will either be the team who left it late to win the Champions League, or the team who should have won it but didn’t.
The squad will need rebuilding in the near future but it is clear that Terry, Lampard, Drogba et al. will be given at least one more season to achieve the Holy Grail. Once these players retire or more on, then bring in the young manager to overhaul the infrastructure, but if you’re banking on experience on the pitch, why slash it from the bench?
Prem: 4th Cups: Semis Europe: Last 16
Citeh. Apart from the obvious galvanising effect of renaming your stadium after your most bitter rivals, the Sky Blues have been bolstered by what could almost be called thoughtful and prudent investment by their standards. Two summers ago it was all about the defence, last summer the midfield and attack were bolstered so surely all that remains this summer is tying up a few loose ends.
And as mentioned the £53m spent is, by their standards, tame. The vast majority of that money was invested in Sergio Aguero, the most obvious replacement for supposedly want-away talisman Tevez and in today’s market few would argue that this is not a decent piece of business. Anyone who’s seen European football in the last few years will testify to the problems the Argentine can cause, and when you consider the money Tevez will fetch if/when he’s sold, Man City might even make a profit on what could be called an upgrade: a younger, less problematic model of the same player.
The problem is though, who will have the money to take Carlos? He wants to live nearer his family, so the only viable bidders at the moment, Inter, are a few hundred miles in the wrong direction. The only situation in which he might return to South America would be if Santos sold/swapped Neymar and reinvested in Tevez.
Failing that, one has to assume that he will stay and partner either Aguero, Dzeko, Balotelli, Adebayor, Santa Cruz or Bellamy. And clearly that isn’t going to work. City say they won’t sell any of the above to their rivals, but now that they’re in the Champions League it’s hard to see who will have the cash to pay transfers and wages without the extra income from Europe’s premier club competition, and who could therefore be potential opponents. Who’d have thought City’s main problem would money, or a lack thereof?
Mancini is like a knight who decides to go into battle armed with anything and everything he can lay his hands on. The result is that the sheer quantity of his armour weighs him down, leaving him highly exposed to any kind of quick counterattack; and when he attacks, he has so many weapons to choose from his blows are often clumsy, with one thing always getting in the way of another.
It should be seen as reassuring for fans of other teams to see Man City linked with yet another of the Premiership’s star players – Samir Nasri – because by buying him, all they’ll be doing is reducing the number of games he plays in a season from 30 odd to about 15. And if he does start every match, then either Yaya Toure or Silva won’t, and both of them were brilliant last season. Or maybe Adam Johnson will get less time on the pitch: works for me as a Man United fan.
City’s defence was rock solid last season, and despite signing Gael Clichy I expect it to remain so. Going forward, when things work it will be irresistible; but they won’t always get their way, and when this happens the lack of any discernible team-spirit will cost them. The success stories of the last five years or so – Stoke, Everton, Fulham – all kept their chopping and changing to a minimum and when things went wrong, it was a core group of fifteen or so who were able to turn it around. Look at how having a big squad of individuals helped Newcastle and West Ham.
Prem: 3rd Cups: FA Cup Runners-up Europe: Quarters
Arsenal. It strikes me as an unusual that in the pre-match build-ups to game between Man City and Arsenal, more is not made of the seemingly obvious paradox between the two clubs. While City seem reluctant to part with their bit-part players, the Gunners can’t seem to sell their stars quickly enough. While City will buy anyone who is spoken of admirably in passing, it’s almost as if journalists are Arsene Wenger’s chief scouts – ‘You heard of Samba gv’nor? Jags’d do a job? That Cahill’s looking alright? Meh non, I do not zink zeese are ze right players for us. I prefer ze meat young and tender, not tough and chewy. You Briteesh deezgust me.
It’s almost like what Arsenal really need is a pushy owner of chairman who can drill into Wenger what the rest of the world knows: that sometimes to have to get what you need, not what you want. No more wishy-washy wonderkids until you have a centre half who has ended at least one career. And that’s the end of it! Couple this with one £50m selfish primadona who can shoot from distance and get wind the opposition players up until they get sent off, and Arsenal would be a real force.
Gervinho looks like he could go some way to becoming the latter – with that hair he’ll look incredible when the Emirates Snoods® are handed out in mid-September just in time for Milwall away in the Carling Cup – but the former is conspicuously absent, for about the seventh season in a row.
The departure of Fabregras and possibly Nasri should be a blessing in disguise, as it allows the remarkable talents of Wilshire and Ramsey the run of middle of park. But without an experienced defence behind then, the gambolling young lambs will prove easy pickings for wily wolves. Same thing with Szczesny in goals: after exposing De Gea so much for Dzeko’s goal in the Charity Shield, Ferguson will remind Ferdinand and Vidic of their protective responsibilities; Wenger will have job asking the same of Djourou Squillachi or Koscielny.
If they sign Samba/Jags/Cahill and keep Vermaelen fit they might have a chance, but failing that they’ll succumb to their characteristic capitulation come February/March.
Prem: 5th Cups: League Cup Winners Europe: Last 16
Liverpool. Resurgent under Kenny Dalgleish has become so standard an introduction it might as well be incorporated into You’ll Never Walk Alone, but after £46m investment results and respectability will be expected, and for those round Stanley Park that means Champions League minimum, ideally a push for the title.
The fat Spanish waiter’s service soured over successive seasons, chiefly due to his inexplicable lack of appreciation for his local produce. Xavi Alonso, whose variety of passes, subtly of play and ability to please the eyes of even the most ardent enemies of Liverpool FC made him the club’s tapas: popular, effective and above all, really good.
Benitez instead decided that what he wanted was Gareth Barry, who like good old English fish and chips with mushy peas is alright every now and then, but is frequently uninspiring and occasionally awful. But Barry was more of an Oasis guy than a Beatles man – one-dimensional and quickly monotonous when compared with polyphony and intelligence of the other – and chose City instead, leaving Rafa red-faced. Then he really lost the plot towards the end of his tenure, was forced to sell Alonso having pissed him off beyond reconciliation, and brought in Lucas, that ‘exotic’ dish you order from the dodgy takeaway which gives you the shits.
Liverpool’s closest title challenge in recent years came when they were essentially Torres and Gerrard going forward with Xavi Alonso pulling the strings. In Suarez they look to have unearthed that rare thing: a player who scored 50+ goals in Holland but is actually good, and if Carroll keeps himself in right box (penalty, not defendants Andy) they’ll be a formidable strike-force. To say they have a problem in field seems bizarre but how Gerrard, Henderson, Adam, Meireles, Lucas, Poulson, Aquilani, Shelvey and Spearing can possibly be incorporated in the middle is beyond me, and why you need a new winger when Rodriguez and Kuyt finished the season so strongly is again up for debate. Joe Cole especially will be asking plenty of questions.
With Jose Enrique at left back, and Wilson, Kelly and Flanegan all impressing last Spring, the already steady backline seems to have received the necessary tweaks, and if they can sort out some kind of regular four or five across midfield, Liverpool will be a real force this season.
Prem: 2nd Cup: Semis Europe: Europa Runners-up
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